Regardless of how people felt about I Want to Believe (many more liked it than you might think), I highly doubt people would accept replacing Duchovny and Anderson. People weren’t very receptive of it when they tried it with the series, so I don’t think FOX would want to try that again – at least not right now. Based on the many comments people have posted on various movie websites, what people really want is Duchovny and Anderson playing those characters again, but in a much more sci-fi or paranormal setting. That’s what people have come to expect from The X-Files, which is mainly the reason why IWTB wasn’t well-received.

Another reason was marketing. People have to actually be aware that there’s an X-Files film coming out. Last time, FOX did such a horrible job marketing the film. There were hardly any trailers for it, and TV spots were virtually non-existent. If they make a good film that is true to the series, one that looks entertaining in the trailers and TV spots, and they advertise to the level that they did with Avatar, people will go and see it. I remember seeing ads for The Dark Knight all over the place, but hardly any for IWTB.

Which, by the way, brings me to my last point. With IWTB, they could not have picked a worse date to release the film, with it only being one week after the release of The Dark Knight. IWTB was not a summer blockbuster type of film to begin with, and everyone was in “Batman” mode for weeks, including myself. It was a great film, and people just weren’t in the mood for The X-Files. Or, like I said earlier, they didn’t even know there was a new X-Files film. TDK was a box office juggernaut, and it hurt IWTB’s chances of having a decent opening week. Regardless of the quality of the film, if IWTB was released when nothing else was coming out, like in September ‘08, it would have at least done better in its opening week if not overall.

In the end, people just want an entertaining story. In this case, they want something that feels like The X-Files, and the last film didn’t quite achieve that in the eyes of most of those that saw the film.

I do think it might be a good idea if someone else stepped into the director’s chair. I’d even be fine with Rob Bowman, who directed the first X-Files feature. But I’d say only Chris Carter knows where the franchise should go if it’s going to be about the alien mythology, so he should at least be shepherding the story if not writing it.

There’s still life left in the franchise and these characters. You’re right in that it might still not be a hit, but I think it is still possible and maybe even probable that it will be – if they do it right.